The V Plan

Vegas is so close I can almost taste it. The taste is somewhat muted mind you, because I have a cold. Colds suck. Vegas on the other hand rocks. Vegas trumps everything, even a cold. Tomorrow at work I'll be miserable. Saturday morning, flying to Vegas, I will suffer the torment of an annoying cold while believing that at any moment I will die. When the plane finally lands (assuming it lands), the cold will have no power over me. I will be in Vegas.

Vegas cures all.

I think I have things figured out. I've crunched the numbers. I've dissected every plausible outcome, every possible reality. I've closed my eyes and thrown the darts. Most importantly, I've consulted my gut. And my gut says drink. Drink a lot. Then I won't care whether to donks win or not. I won't care if my bets win. Inebriation is the key to my happiness. Drink and all will be well.

So that's the plan. I'll drink and then I'll bet. Here's what I'm thinking-

Actually, I'll hold off a moment on that. First, let's do Ed's picks. Ed is an officer at my bank who loves football and loves betting. He's me, but with a real job. When he heard that I was going to Vegas this weekend, he dropped a bundle of cash in my hands and said, "here's what I want you to bet. I want Den, Buf, Min, Sf, Mia, Jac, Car, and NyG. Take the points on all of them. Put $20 on each." Now, most people would cringe at having to place bets for someone else while chillin in Vegas. They would think it was a chore. Not me. I love it. I'm totally down. As soon as he asked me if I'd bet for him, I realized something about myself that I knew under the surface for quite some time. I was born to be a bookie. It's my dream job. Too bad it's illegal.

I wish Ed the best, but here's how I see it.

Clv is going to shock the world, and I'm going to bank on it. The line is currently Chicago by 13. I'll money line that and make a killing.

Ok, that's not going to happen. I mean, I'll bet it like I said, but there's no way it fucking wins. It's a sucker bet. I know it. But I'll be having a blast for the first five minutes of the game hoping for the impossible. Then the Bears will score 17 in the first quarter and I'll be the tool who moneylined the inept Browns. It would be like moneylining that the Dagger of Lokin would get published. Just stupid.

Speaking of stupid... I've got two parlay bets I want to drop. First I'll go Ind -12 (over Sf), Sea +10 (at Dal). Then I'll get really crazy and throw down Mia +3.5 (at NyJ), Vikes +3 (at Gb), and Jac +3 (at Ten) (assuming the line doesn't disappear now that Young is the starter).

Next come the straight up moneylines.

Mia to win. Jac to win. Buf to win. Vikes to win.

That's it. That's all I got. Oh, there will be plenty more bets than that, but I'll figure the rest out when I get to Sin City. Whether I bet on the Broncos/Ravens game, or how I'll bet on it, I'm just not sure. I probably won't decide on that until right before the game. Whatever I decide, just know, I'm going to be wrong. But I'll also be drunk, so I won't give a fuck.

Gambling Heaven Vs Gambling Hell

It would be the ecstasy of gold, or it would be the torment and the torture.

Do I even have the balls to do it?

Since the donks/ravens line opened at 4, it has since dropped an entire point. It currently stands at Den +3, Bal -3. I like this line a lot better. In fact, if it drops any lower, even just to -2.5, I'm taking the ravens with the pts and I'm not looking back. Or am I?

Despite every fiber of my being telling me not to do it, I'm actually considering taking the moneyline on the donks. Damn it, I just vomited in my mouth again.

It would be the greatest gambling joy ever if it worked. Could you imagine if I dropped $200+ on the donks to win, and they did? Not only would I be thrilled at the donks victory, but I'd bank off it as well. It would be the ultimate, gambling high. Of course, if I bet on the donks and they losi...it would be a kick square in the nuts. I'd end up rolling on the ground cradling my boys, screaming like Nancy Kerrigan. "Why? Why? Why?"

No one needs to see that.

I am truly torn. But not just with the donks game.

Clv +14, Chi -14- It's the sucker bet of all sucker bets, but I'm considering it. I'd bet Clv with the moneyline. There's no way it wins. None. Don't even entertain the idea. Of course, if the browns did, by some miracle, find a way to win... Nope. No chance. I'd just be throwing my money away, but I'd be OK with that. It's fun to play sucker bets sometimes. No, really.

Speaking of sucker bets, I love the moneylines. Look at these games- Hou -3.5, Buf +3.5. Mia +3.5, NyJ -3.5. Jac +3, Ten -3. Min +3, Gb -3. Call me a tool, but I think I might moneyline every single one of those. I'm not kidding.

I like Ari -10 over Car. Kinda. I like Sea +10 at Dal. Sort of. I guess I'd take Ind -13 over Sf. I guess. The San Diego/Oakland line scares the shit out of me. Oak +17/Sd -17. Damn.

But it all comes down to Denver at Baltimore. Is it worth the risk? Is it worth the potential heartbreak? Or do I avoid this game entirely and put all my money on the Giants to beat the Eagles?

There are some tough fucking choices ahead.

Vegas' Revenge (Part II)- Triple L Loses His Mojo

Vegas knows what I know.

Vegas knows that the Broncos are overrated. Vegas knows that the donks are due for a reality check.

Vegas also knows what I was planning.

See, this is what should have happened- the 6-0 donks should have been favored over the 3-3 ravens. Maybe by 3. Maybe even 3.5. That was step #1. Step #2 was me strolling into the sportsbook and dropping a few hundred dollars on a Baltimore moneyline bet. Step #3 (and this was going to be my favorite step) was me collecting my winnings and buying all my peeps lap dances.

Yeah, that was what was supposed to happen. One problem. Vegas knows.

Ravens by 4.

Now I don't know what the fuck to do. I'm rattled. They got in my head. Do I bet on the ravens covering? Do I take the points with the donks? Do I, dare I say it, throw down a Broncos to win bet?

Oh yuck, I just vomited in my mouth.

Vegas got me and they got me good. Looking at the lines, I'm stupefied. It's all Greek to me. I'm as confused as an adolescent male trying to unfasten his first girlfriend's bra.

My instinct is to grab the moneylines, take the underdogs, but I don't know.

Look at these lines- Vikes +3 at Gb. Mia +3.5 at NyJ. My instincts tell me to take the moneyline and never look back. But my confidence is shot. My security blanket is gone.

Vegas knows what I know, and they know I know they know.

I Didn't Realize

I didn't know this until Steph pointed it out to me- the time change will occur while we're in Vegas. That means we get an extra hour of Sin City! It means we get to sleep in an extra hour the morning we get up early to secure good seats at the sportsbook!

I don't know why this makes me so happy, but it does. I think it's an omen.

Greatest Vegas trip ever.

Random Thoughts (and Line Bets)

I had a really weird dream the other night, and I'd like to share it with you if you don't mind. Don't worry, I'll give you the cliff notes version.

Basically, I dreamt that I had died, and that I was sent to Hell. Waiting for me at the gates to Hell was Bill Cosby who was assigned to be my guide and show me around. Bill was very unhappy to have to do this, and he didn't put much effort into it. He just pointed and said, "there's the lake of fire" and "there's the smoldering abyss", without any kind of enthusiasm what so ever. He was very unpleasant, and no matter how hard I tried to convince him, he refused to say, "Eat the pudding." What a dick.

-- Here's a riddle for you: Who has two thumbs and is going to the Giants/Broncos game on Thanksgiving Day? Answer: This guy! (Oh, you should picture me pointing at myself with my thumbs. Thanks). I'm super psyched. I got the tickets from one of my customers at the bank. He can't go to the game because he's spending the week in Mexico, and so he asked if I'd like to buy them from him. I said, "Fuck yeah." The next thing you know, I'm handing him cash and he's handing me tickets. Crazy cool, right? Of course, chances are pretty strong that I'll die in a plane crash next week and won't get to go. In case that happens, I'd like to make it official right now that I want the tickets to go to whoever calls me a tool the most times at my funeral.

-- As most of you may have heard, Daniel and I had a wager going last week as to which of our teams would win in our Core de la Hard fantasy football league. I thought his team would win, and he thought mine would. Of course, I won. Daniel is a fantasy football genius. The terms of the bet were that whoever lost would have to write the first sentence of the Mace of Dominion. Well, that and the winner gets to pick the loser's first drink in Vegas. Just today I received Daniel's opening to the MoD, and I have to say it's damn good. But don't take my word for it. Read it yourself.

"An ill wind billowed from the mouths of the Caverns of Chaos, spinning gnarled balls of devil's briar across the plains of Abaddon, breezing unnoticed past the impervious midnight black Tower of Sedimm, which failed even to reflect the silvery splotches of dueling moonlight that adorned the barren rocky landscape." -- Daniel C.

If Daniel is cool with it, I'm going to go ahead and use his sentence. The rest of the book will suck, but at least it'll start off good.

-- I really want to talk Vegas, but first let me get these stupid week 7 picks out of the way. I was 4-3 last week (my best performance yet), putting me at a dismal 12-19 for the year. My goal is to be better than .500 by the end of the season. Yeah, that's not happening. Actually, I don't care how I do for the year. What matters is how well I do next week when it really counts. Anyway, here are my picks.

Clv +9.5 Vs Gb- So here's my theory- the Browns are the best of the worst. They're awful, but there not as bad as Vegas seems to think they are. So until I'm wrong about this, I'm going to take points with the Browns and assume that though they will lose, they won't lose as bad as predicted.

Stl +14 Vs Ind- I'm cringing even as I type this, but something tells me that the Rams get their shit together just enough this week to make a game of this. Again, I'm not picking the Rams to win, only to lose by 13 pts or less. I know, I know. Manning is going to torch them and I'll probably look the fool. I told you I was lousy at this.

Pit -5.5 Vs Min- Here's why I'm taking the Steelers- because the gambling gods know I want the Vikes to win, and thus they won't let it happen. If the vikes were to win, they'd go to Green Bay next week undefeated, setting up the perfect moneyline bet. Just imagine, Bret Favre going back to Lambeau at 7-0. The Vikes would be favored, and I'd bet heavy on the pack. But NO. The vikes will lose to the Steelers and next week's line won't be worth betting. Lame.

Oak +6.5 Vs NyJ- Something strange is happening in Oakland, and I don't like it. The jets had better not let these punks win.

NyG -7 Vs Ari- Fuck if I know.


The Vegas Attack Plan- I've been thinking about Vegas for weeks now, and I think I've finally come up with my strategy for the big weekend. First off, I'm going to keep a detailed account of all my wagers. No more estimating how much I'm up or down. When the weekend is over I'm going to know exactly how I did, good or bad, and I'm going to post the results right here for all the world to see (the world being the three people who read this).

Here's what I'm thinking- I'm going to start with $100 walking around money (or in other words, slot money). Since we'll probably be wandering around on Halloween night, I figure I'll set aside some cash to play random slots just for the fuck of it. A couple of bucks here, a couple there. Maybe a high limits machine or two. Whatever whatever, I'll do what i want. So basically, I pretty much plan to start off the trip down a hundred. Hey, it's for a good cause.

Next I'm going to throw down about $100 on a couple of Saturday games. Most likely it'll be on hockey, but I might dabble a bit with college football as well. According to Zach, Buffalo over the NY Islanders and Montreal over Toronto are solid bets. Maybe I'll parley them. It's going to get crazy, folks.

The rest of my money will go to betting Pro Football, and most of that to betting against the donks. I know it seems crazy with the donks being 6-0 (both in wins for the season and against the lines), but my gut still tells me that they can't win in Baltimore. Everyone and their pet chinchilla has been warning me not to bet against the donks, and I can see their point. This isn't the same donks team that always lost to the Jags, or the team that always got blown out by the Chargers. This isn't a team I can just assume is overrated.

That being said, this team is highly overrated. They're this years Tennessee Titans. Sure they'll finish with a pretty good record, but they'll just get bumped by the first team they play in the playoffs.

Hey, betting against the donks is what I do. It's who I am. It's in my blood. Just like I'll always be certain that the plane I'm on is going to crash, I'll always be certain that the donks are going to choke.

So I'm pushing all my chips in. Well, a lot of them anyway. And for those of you ready to pronounce me a fool, I have two words for you. Kyle Orton. The man is due. He's due for a game filled with mistakes, with picks and fumbles and sacks galore. He's due for a game that reminds everyone who he is. He's Kyle "can someone please hand me a tissue" Orton.

Against the Ravens, it will finally happen, and I'm going to be in Vegas to bank on it when it does.

And if the donks do somehow win, well it's only money. Well, Steph's hard earned money. But she won't mind. She'll be just as happy as I will be that the donks are 7-0.

Vegas' Revenge

Everyone's favorite Dr. Evil Chris must be laughing it up right now. He's probably lounging at some Indonesian beach resort with a couple of topless beach babes and sipping on Balinese rice wine, all while enjoying a good laugh at his cruel joke in having me pick the lines again.

I'm glad he's stuck in paradise, drinking coconut milk off the tits of sun-soaked hotties while he searches in vain to find a WiFi hotspot that doesn't exist. If he was back in Japan, or anywhere with Internet and phone service for that matter, we'd probably have a bet going for this week's donks/bolts match up, which would inevitably end with me having to write the Mace of Dominion. Chris will not rest until I have completely exposed my full range of ineptness to the world.

I was 3-4 in my mighty return, putting me at 9-16 for the year. I realize now this is more than just a slump. This is a curse. I'm trapped in a horror movie called, "Vegas' Revenge", a low budget B movie staring Vincent Price, Pam Grier, and myself. It's about a sports betting tool who after several successful trips to Las Vegas has discovered that the gambling gods are onto him and have decided his luck has run out. Already, the cruel and heartless gambling gods have slain my fantasy football teams, hunting them down one by one and leaving them in a pool of blood and guts. Now all that's left is the final showdown in Vegas where the gambling gods will chase me through the sportsbooks with knives and chainsaws, and then finally bleed me dry. I just hope there's a couple of tit shots in the movie to make it worth renting some time.

Here are this week's picks, because I'm obligated to post them.

Bal +3 at Minn- Favre is due for a bad game, and I just don't believe that the NFC is as good as the AFC. But what the fuck do I know?

Clv +14 at Pit- Taking pts on the high lines is going to be the death of me. Even lines this steep can be covered. Just look at the giants and eagles kicking ass last week. Throwing down a Benjamin on a super long shot in Vegas doesn't seem like such a good idea any more. Maybe I should drop it down a few tiers to a slight underdog. Nah. What fun is that? I'll roll like I always do. Parley bets and money lines, baby! And this time, I go for broke on a sucker bet. We haven't seen the week of big upsets yet. Hopefully it'll come on November 1st.

KC +6.5 at Was- Fuck if I know.

NyG +3 at NO- I like the giants D better than I do the Saints. That's the only reason I'm taking the points here.

Sea -3 over Ari- Seattle is a tough place to play, and Arizona is all over the place. One week they're good, the next week they suck. Well, this week they suck.

Atl -3 over Chi- I just don't trust Cutler on the road. Plus, Forte isn't the back he was last year (as my records in fantasy football clearly show). Throw in Turner starting to find his groove and you got yourself a Falcon's win.

Sd -4 Over Den- It's a lock! You can bet your kidneys on it.

With Apologies to the Byrds

To everything. Turn. Turn. Turn.
There is a season. Turn. Turn. Turn.
A time to every purpose under heaven.

A time to go 4-0, then lose the next ten.

A time to have lesbian sex (while your husband watches).

A time to watch the new "V" series on ABC (I'm super excited).

A time for peace, I swear it's not too late.


I was singing various versions of the classic Byrds song in my head today and it got me thinking. Maybe it's time I started making line bets again. Maybe, just maybe, giving up so early on them was a bad idea.

Actually, it was a great idea. I suck at picking lines. But that damn doctor won yet another bet with me, and now I have to pay up by making picks the rest of the year. Yeah, I know. What the fuck kind of terms is that? That's about as lame as a pg-13 movie. Well, that's what the doc wanted, so that's what he gets. He must really enjoy my public displays of ineptness.

So, despite me misgivings about this, I present to you my Week 5 picks.

Cin +9 at Bal- Call me a tool, but I just don't see a blowout in this one. The ravens will win, but I think the bungles will at least keep it close. In fact, I predict that the bungles will be winning for most of the game, only to lose at the end. They won't lose by 9+ pts though. More like 3.

Car -4 against Was- The redskins are awful. And they're on the road. And their quarterback is Jason Campbell, who's almost as bad as Kyle Orton. Despite his fetish for throwing to the other team, I think Delhomme will get enough passes to Steve Smith to carry the Panthers to a td or better win. So let tit be written, so let tit be done.

Tampa Bay +15 at Phi- This is an old school Lance pick. I'm not making this pick because I think the Bucs can hang with the eagles. Hell no. I'm making this pick because I really really really need McNabb to do well for me in fantasy this week, and this is my feeble attempt to reverse jinx him. Knowing my luck, Mcnabb will take a shot to his ribs and leave the game early, and then Kolb will go into the game and lead the eagles to a 16+ pt victory. Will the football godz ever grant me mercy?

Atl +2.5 at Sf- I refuse to believe in the 49ers. Refuse!

Ne -3.5 at Den- Do I even need to explain this one? Its Tom Brady vs Kyle "I think I left the stove on" Orton. The donks defense is highly overrated and will be exposed this week. Plus, Orton is due for an interception or five. It's a lock.

Ind -4.5 at Ten- I'm riding the colts train until it derails.

Oak +15.5 against NyG- Wow. How bad are the raiders? They're playing at home against a team that will most likely sit their starting qb, and yet they're still more than a two touchdown underdog. Now that's bad. For reasons though I can not explain, I think this one will be close. My gut says this is a fg game. Giants win by 9, maybe 10. Not by 16.